From the time of joining WTO IN 2001, China has been the biggest enemy of fair business transactions and private property. Is there any reason to be believe Chinese subversion will stop now?
Would I love to be able to find someone who is an expert in Chinese WTO infractions and ask them their opinion of how it is that the CCP has never had to face severe penalties for breaking so many WTO rules (e.g., IP theft)?
The dependence isn't just the critical minerals - they've massively subsidized 'clean' tech so they can produce it for cheapest, and since there is no fuel cost (i.e. the cost of power generated is mainly dependent on original equipment cost), increasing western adoption of renewables as percentage of total energy means greater sensitivity to changes in equipment prices, thus continued dependence to keep costs low - i.e. don't upset China.
One of China’s advantages is that it is not saddled with net zero ideology. The wind, solar, battery, etc. equipment they export to the west are made mainly with coal generated electricity.
The west (excluding the US and its widely despised president Trump) is trapped in China’s vicious cycle (as you describe it) only because climate alarmists have frightened people into believing unreliable renewable power is the only or best option. Based on Levelized Full System Cost of Electricity ($/kWh) (see: https://iaee2021online.org/download/contribution/fullpaper/1145/1145_fullpaper_20210326_222336.pdf) unreliable renewables are by far the most expensive option of wind, solar PV, nuclear, clean coal, combined cycle gas turbine, simple cycle gas turbine. The west may be in China’s vicious trap, but only because their elected governments chose to pursue net zero carbon dioxide emissions.
Getting out of the trap is as easy as abandoning renewables and net zero ambitions as they are too expensive and provide little benefit. Far better for humanity to follow Bjorn Lomborg’s and Alex Epstein’s advice and adapt, as humanity has been since homo sapiens first stood on two feet and walked out of the jungle.
Hence the renewed focus on the Monroe (Donroe) doctrine? If Carney doesn't smarten up - and in a big hurry - well ... I guess we'll see. A reenactment of the Maduro operation might be interesting.
Does China's restraint in not taking advantage of its dominance result from a wish to achieve its aims through cooperation, or is it a poker player's strategy not to show its hand too early?
From the time of joining WTO IN 2001, China has been the biggest enemy of fair business transactions and private property. Is there any reason to be believe Chinese subversion will stop now?
Would I love to be able to find someone who is an expert in Chinese WTO infractions and ask them their opinion of how it is that the CCP has never had to face severe penalties for breaking so many WTO rules (e.g., IP theft)?
The theft of technology is the worst: China has to have stolen several 100s of trillions dollars of patented ideas and inventions.
The dependence isn't just the critical minerals - they've massively subsidized 'clean' tech so they can produce it for cheapest, and since there is no fuel cost (i.e. the cost of power generated is mainly dependent on original equipment cost), increasing western adoption of renewables as percentage of total energy means greater sensitivity to changes in equipment prices, thus continued dependence to keep costs low - i.e. don't upset China.
Better explained here: https://substack.com/@paulbrownok/p-181235681
One of China’s advantages is that it is not saddled with net zero ideology. The wind, solar, battery, etc. equipment they export to the west are made mainly with coal generated electricity.
The west (excluding the US and its widely despised president Trump) is trapped in China’s vicious cycle (as you describe it) only because climate alarmists have frightened people into believing unreliable renewable power is the only or best option. Based on Levelized Full System Cost of Electricity ($/kWh) (see: https://iaee2021online.org/download/contribution/fullpaper/1145/1145_fullpaper_20210326_222336.pdf) unreliable renewables are by far the most expensive option of wind, solar PV, nuclear, clean coal, combined cycle gas turbine, simple cycle gas turbine. The west may be in China’s vicious trap, but only because their elected governments chose to pursue net zero carbon dioxide emissions.
Getting out of the trap is as easy as abandoning renewables and net zero ambitions as they are too expensive and provide little benefit. Far better for humanity to follow Bjorn Lomborg’s and Alex Epstein’s advice and adapt, as humanity has been since homo sapiens first stood on two feet and walked out of the jungle.
Scary times indeed. Well put together.
Thank you. You can expect more along this line of reasoning in the coming weeks. Geopolitics has once again become a hot topic. At last.
Very cool. I'm doing up some energy pricing materials for O&G industry so trying to get smarter on the geopoly. Looking forward to your next posts.
Hence the renewed focus on the Monroe (Donroe) doctrine? If Carney doesn't smarten up - and in a big hurry - well ... I guess we'll see. A reenactment of the Maduro operation might be interesting.
Do you keep an eye on Sam Cooper's work, Joseph?
Absolutely I do. His work in framing the Vancouver Model for organized Chinese Triad crime in British Columbia is a must read for all Canadians.
Does China's restraint in not taking advantage of its dominance result from a wish to achieve its aims through cooperation, or is it a poker player's strategy not to show its hand too early?
Another superb analysis & synthesis, set in the most significant geopolitical milieu in over 8 decades. Thanks.